IMPACT OF MIGRATORY INFLOW ON THE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF SINGLE-INDUSTRY TOWNS IN THE REPUBLIC OF KAZAKHSTAN | Мой кабинет. Работа №352912

IMPACT OF MIGRATORY INFLOW ON THE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF SINGLE-INDUSTRY TOWNS IN THE REPUBLIC OF KAZAKHSTAN

Tovma Nataliya,

PhD, senior lecture

Golubtsov Danil

PhD student

Akimbayeva Karligash

PhD student

Al-Farabi Kazak National University

Annotation. One of the key phenomena influencing the socio-economic development of any state is migration. Migration is a complex social process. The primary drivers of migration include the desire for improved quality of life, better working conditions, higher wages, the need for personal change, cultural development, better environmental conditions, or climate change. Migration affects the age and professional structure of the population, which in turn impacts the labor market and economic activity. Migration generates two effects: on labor demand and supply, and its outcomes can be varied. On the labor demand side, migration may lead to increased wages and inflationary pressures.

Key words: migration, single industry towns.

Introduction. Migration processes globally play a crucial role in addressing issues such as demographic shortages, a lack of working-age population, poverty reduction, and migrant self-realization. Kazakhstan is no exception, being heavily involved in migration flows. One of the key challenges for single-industry towns' development is population migration. The consideration of migration processes and their impact on the labor market, within the framework of migration policy, is strongly felt both externally and internally.In the literature, the impact of migratory inflows on the economic development of single-industry towns remains under-researched.

Literature Review. Jonitz, Elina, Schiller, Maria, and Scholten, Peter explored the influence of migration flows on the development of small towns. They noted that the authorities of small towns engage in various forms of co-management, ranging from consolidated networks of stakeholders and intensive cooperation between local authorities and civil society organizations to fragmented networks with more passive authorities. The researchers identified several factors shaping interaction models, including the size of the settlements, political orientation, leadership, resident attitudes, and municipal decision-making [1, с. 115].

Semprebon, Michela, Marzorati, Roberta, and Bonizzoni, Paola made an innovative contribution by studying local migration management, focusing on the role of third-sector actors in three small municipalities in Northern Italy: a mountain village, a rural village, and a town on the outskirts of a large Milanese agglomeration [2, с. 115].

Dlugosz, Zbigniew studied the population of large Polish cities in comparison with small towns and villages in light of selected parameters of the migration process [3, с.23].

Kiradziev S. studied migration as a factor in the development of Bulgarian cities. The analysis showed that migration is mainly due to significant differences in wages and usually contributes to a reduction in the number of working-age population in the country, especially in rural areas. Migration is not associated with a reduction in unemployment, which indicates rigidity in the labor market, but leads to an increase in wages for workers with similar skills. [4, с.13].

Rakowski W., Kucinski K. studied the regionalization of migration in small towns and came to the conclusion, analyzing the impact of internal migration on demographic aging, that migration accelerates the process in rural areas, but slows it down in urban areas. [5, с.20].

Goda, Eisaku investigated migrations in Zentsuji and Kotohira and concluded that both towns showed common facts: female migration was more prevalent than male, but in terms of migration out of the prefecture, males outnumbered females [6, с.20].

Oliinyk, Olena, Mishchuk, Halyna, and Bilan, Yuriy researched the role of leadership in fostering creativity, including the opportunities arising from the attractiveness of countries for intellectual migrants. The researchers found that Finland leads with an integral index value of 0.85, followed by Denmark (0.83) and the Netherlands (0.76). Correlation analysis was used to test the hypotheses regarding the significant influence of leadership on a country's attractiveness to intellectual migrants and creative development. The results proved the need to develop leadership competencies as an important factor in creativity, talent attraction, and generating innovative solutions [7, с.2]. Shah, Sachin studied the impact of migration and digitalization on the volumes of global remittances and concluded that changes in migration trends not only improve the financial position of families but also positively influence income flows for some low- and middle-income countries, contributing significantly to their GDP. This, in turn, provides these countries with more funds to spend on social infrastructure. Shah used graphical and regression analysis to illustrate the economic impact of migration trends and technological innovations in the remittance sector, and forecasted migration models [8, с.27].  So, Bing Kwan, Lui, Ingrid D., Wat, Kam Pui, Bai, Yiming, Lam, Kwok Fa, and Yip, Paul S. F. studied the impact of migration on Hong Kong’s development, where a rapid demographic shift was observed due to extremely low birth rates and uncertainty in migration flows. The researchers created population forecasts for the period 2026-2056 based on three migration scenarios: no net migration, constant levels from 2016-2021 (negative growth), and constant levels from 2011-2016 (positive but stable growth). [9, с.127].   

Martynovych, Nataly, Britchenko, Igor, Kolinets, Lesya, and Popova, Yuliia explored human capital migration in the context of sustainable development. The researchers examined the relationship between human capital migration and the sustainable development of socio-economic systems, highlighting the dual nature of migration. They found that, while migrant influxes can strain social protection systems, developed countries receiving the most migration flows demonstrate strong socio-economic stability and compete for high-quality human capital. They analyzed both quantitative and qualitative aspects of human capital migration, identifying advantages, risks, and opportunities for migration and sustainable development [10, с.127].  .  

Tajbakhsh, Alireza, Nematollahi, Mohammadreza, Shamsi Zamenjani, Azam explored the four-component framework of migration as an extension of the classical triple bottom line model for the transition to sustainable development. They also developed recommendations for reducing negative environmental and social impacts [11, с.17].

Kozlovskyi, Serhii, Kulinich, Tetiana, Vechirko, Ihor, Lavrov, Ruslan, Zayukov, Ivan, and Mazur, Hennadii studied the relationship between net migration volumes and economic development in certain European countries, allowing for predictions of GDP levels and improvements in migration policies. [12, с.17].  Harvey, Philip D., Keefe, Richard S.E., Kallestrup, Peter, and Czaja, Sara J. investigated the feasibility of migration in the context of digitalization and concluded that migration positively impacts a country’s development [13, с.7].   Despite the contributions of these researchers, a model to assess the impact of migration inflows on the economic development of single-industry towns in Kazakhstan has not yet been developed. The creation of such a model is crucial, as it can form the basis for developing strategies for these towns' growth. We have set out to fill this gap in the research. Let's consider the migration balance in single-industry towns over 10 years (table 1).

Table 1

Migration balance, thousand people

№

Single-industry towns

Migration balance, thousand people

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

1

Stepnogorsk

15,56

15,03

14,35

15,19

16,07

15,04

14,77

15,66

15,02

2

Chrome plating

-204

-258

-231

-51

52

65

-60

-133

-394

-250

3

Kulsary

-561

-510

-563

-410

-415

-672

-457

-668

-589

-589

4

Altai

-1

-166

-330

-224

-78

-84

-380

-52

-76

-118

5

Kurchatov

76

296

108

28

-90

-53

-189

2

-175

-44

6

Ridder

15

80

5

-87

-207

-251

-446

-257

-346

-247

7

Lame

-402

6610

-255

-373

325

301

-352

-442

-525

-535

8

Balkhash

-186

-288

-344

-550

-252

71

-541

-859

-719

-788

9

Funds

-1 394

-1 342

-1 169

-911

-1 345

-533

-945

-699

-842

-791

10

Satpaev

122

186

187

139

185

174

202

82

111

11

Temirtau

239

432

686

-806

-159

-119

-496

-878

-1 293

-724

12

Shakhtinsk

39

31

-38

-372

-729

-376

-425

-255

-398

-295

13

Be careful

-21

-153

-254

-443

-592

-252

-423

-212

-218

-259

14

Zhitikara

-42

-351

-408

-583

-708

-456

-538

-620

-511

-490

15

Lisakovsk

224

77

40

-170

-171

-250

-253

-127

-192

-319

16

Ore

-106

723

954

-397

231

-14

-305

-570

-659

276

17

Janaozen

1,290

1,742

0,312

0,338

-0,640

-0,619

-0,795

-1,282

-0,876

499

18

A limp

-252

121

189

-298

-1 161

-844

-1 020

-554

-427

-304

19

Stand by

640

437

483

-1 321

-633

-1 093

-1 044

-1 705

-1 352

-1 326

20

Kentau

-572

60

-73

-488

-563

-491

-1 420

222

1

-896

Note – compiled by the author based on statistical data

Thus, based on the analysis for 10 years, it can be noted that the most negative balance is observed in the single-industry towns of Ekibastuz, Kentau, Balkhash, Temirtau, Kulsary, Aksai. Therefore, it is necessary to concentrate on the strengths and weaknesses, opportunities and threats of these single-industry towns.

Conclusion.

Acknowledgment: This article was prepared under the BR18574200 program "Revitalization of Single-Industry Towns in the Context of New Kazakhstan Through Territorial Marketing," as part of the targeted funding by the Science Committee of the Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Republic of Kazakhstan.

Reference:

1.Jonitz, Elina, Schiller, Maria, Scholten, Peter  (2024) Are small towns a battleground for migration governance? Negotiating refugee integration in small towns in the Netherlands//Local Government Studies.

2. Semprebon, Michela, Marzorati, Roberta, Bonizzoni, Paola (2023) Migration governance and the role of the third sector in small-sized towns in Italy// Journal of Ethnic and Migration StudiesТом 49, №  11, P. 2742 – 2759.

3.Dlugosz, Zbigniew (2006) Migration of population in big polish cities as compared to smaller cities and towns in the light of selected parameters of the migration process//Bulletin of Geography Т. 6, В. 1, P. 33 – 50.

4. Kiradziev S. (1982) Migration as a factor in the development of Bulgarian towns.// Geografija Т. 3, P. 1 - 41

5. Rakowski W., Kucinski K. (1977).Regionalization of migration of population in small towns//Biuletyn IGS / Szkola Glowna Handlowa, Instytut Gospodarstwa SpolecznegoТ 20, №  4, P. 97 - 121

6. Goda, Eisaku (1953) Migrations of local towns, zentsuji-cho and kotohira-cho, in kagawa prefecture//Japanese Journal of Human GeographyОткрытый доступ. Том 5, B. 3, P. 186 – 195.

7. Oliinyk, Olena, Mishchuk, HalynaBilan, Yuriy (2024) Leadership and its role in intellectual migration and creativity development//Creativity Studies. Том 17, №  2, P. 379 – 394.

8. Shah, Sachin  (2022) The impact of migration and digitisation on global remittance volumes and socio-economic development//Journal of Payments Strategy and Systems Т 18, № 2, P. 192 - 201Summer

9. Harvey, Philip D, Keefe, Richard S.E., Kallestrup, Peter, Czaja, Sara J. (2025) Migration of digital functional capacity assessments from device resident to cloud-based delivery: Development and convergent validity Schizophrenia Research: Cognition Т. 39. № 10033

10. Martynovych, Nataly, Britchenko, Igor, Kolinets, Lesya, Popova, Yuliia (2024) On Sustainable Development under the Conditions of Human Capital Migration: A New Agenda for External and Internal Population Displacement//Problemy EkorozwojuТ. 19, В. 2, p. 23 – 34.

11. Tajbakhsh, Alireza, Nematollahi, Mohammadreza, Shamsi Zamenjani, Azam (2024) Migration to the quadruple bottom line framework for achieving sustainable development goals: the 4Ps of sustainability//Annals of Operations Research.

13. Kozlovskyi, Serhii, Kulinich, Tetiana, Vechirko, Ihor, Lavrov, Ruslan, Zayukov, Ivan, Mazur, Hennadii. (2024) “Relationship between net migration and economic development of European countries: Empirical conclusions//Problems and Perspectives in ManagementОткрытый доступ Т. 22, В. 1, P. 605 – 618.

ВЛИЯНИЕ МИГРАЦИОННОГО ПРИТОКА НА ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКОЕ РАЗВИТИЕ МОНОГОРОДОВ В РЕСПУБЛИКЕ КАЗАХСТАН

Товма Наталия,

доктор (PhD), старший преподаватель

Голубцов Данил

аспирант

Акимбаева Карлыгаш

аспирант

Казахский национальный университет имени аль-Фараби

Аннотация. Одним из ключевых явлений, влияющих на социально-экономическое развитие любого государства, является миграция. Миграция — сложный социальный процесс. Основными движущими силами миграции являются стремление к улучшению качества жизни, улучшению условий труда, повышению заработной платы, потребность в личностных изменениях, культурное развитие, улучшение экологических условий или изменение климата. Миграция влияет на возрастную и профессиональную структуру населения, что в свою очередь влияет на рынок труда и экономическую активность. Миграция оказывает два эффекта: на спрос и предложение рабочей силы, и ее результаты могут быть разными. Со стороны спроса на рабочую силу миграция может привести к повышению заработной платы и инфляционному давлению.

Ключевые слова: миграция, моногорода.